By James Swann-Phillips for FIRST.com
The Ballon d’Or remains the most prestigious individual award in world football, and this year there are plenty of contenders from an open field.
In years without a major international tournament like the World Cup, European Championships or Copa America taking place, the Champions League is often decisive.
That could prove costly to Mohamed Salah, who many chalked up as favourite at the start of the year when Liverpool were chasing four trophies and the Egyptian was in incredible form.
While Salah’s form continues in the Premier League, the Reds have crashed out of all three other competitions, most notably losing to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League last 16, with Salah failing to score across 210 minutes of knockout action.
That means the Liverpool forward is now third favourite at 5/1 with some of the best bookmakers, according to betting experts FIRST.com.
All 10 of the others among the 11 favourites to be crowned world’s best player remain in contention to win the Champions League with their clubs this season.
Currently at the shortest odds is Raphinha. The Brazil and Barcelona winger is enjoying a phenomenal season with 27 goals and 20 assists from 42 club games so far.
Now 28, Raphinha can be considered something of a late bloomer and he took a while to really shine at Camp Nou following his 2022 move from then-Premier League strugglers Leeds United.
But now established as a star man in a Barca side battling for La Liga and Champions League glory, he would be a worthy recipient of the award if he continues to shine through the business end of the season.
His fiercest competition looks set to come from Kylian Mbappe. The France striker has long been touted as a future Ballon d’Or winner and having finally made the move from PSG to Real Madrid last summer, could this be his year?
A World Cup winner in 2018 and a hat-trick scorer in the 2022 final, Mbappe has performed at the highest level for his nation but is now hoping to claim the club game’s greatest prize with Champions League holders Real.
With 31 goals in his first 44 games for the Spanish giants, Mbappe is already making an impact, but he will be desperate to help Real get more silverware over the line at the end of the season to finally join his illustrious compatriots Karim Benzema, Zinedine Zidane and Michel Platini as Ballon d’Or winners.
Raphinha and Mbappe aren’t the only contenders from Spain’s biggest two clubs. Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski, Pedri and Gavi are also in the conversation, while Real’s Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham will have their supporters.
Vinicius in particular would love to claim the gong after last season, where by all accounts he thought he had it in the bag after starring in Real’s Champions League final victory over Borussia Dortmund at Wembley.
Unfortunately for the Brazil winger, the international jury who vote for the award favoured Manchester City and Spain star Rodri, who anchored the midfield brilliantly as La Roja won Euro 2024 in Germany. Sidelined with a severe ACL injury, Rodri won’t be winning the award again this year.
Polish veteran Lewandowski would also love to win the Ballon d’Or at last. Now 36, the former Bayern Munich man is widely accepted to be the player who would have won it in 2020 if the award wasn’t controversially cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Barca and Real’s toughest opponents in the race for the Champions League trophy appear to be PSG and Bayern Munich and those two clubs are also represented by their star men among the Ballon d’Or favourites.
PSG winger Ousmane Dembele, formerly of Barcelona, is enjoying a great season with the French champions and has scored 30 goals in 37 matches so far. If the Parisians claim a first ever Champions League, he’ll be in pole position.
Finally, Bayern’s Harry Kane is hoping to become the first English winner since Michael Owen in 2001. The striker who famously has never won a trophy, is looking set to finally break that duck with Bayern six points clear going into the last eight Bundesliga matches of the season. With the Champions League final held in their home stadium too, it could yet be a special year for Kane and his club.
2025 Ballon d’Or favourites
Raphinha (Barcelona and Brazil) 9/4
Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid and France) 5/2
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool and Egypt) 5/1
Ousmane Dembele (PSG and France) 8/1
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona and Spain) 17/2
Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid and Brazil) 12/1
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich and England) 20/1
Pedri (Barcelona and Spain) 20/1
Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid and England) 25/1
Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona and Poland) 33/1
Gavi (Barcelona and Spain) 33/1
Last 10 years of Ballon d’Or winners
2024 – Rodri (Manchester City and Spain)
2023 – Lionel Messi (PSG/Inter Miami and Argentina)
2022 – Karim Benzema (Real Madrid and France)
2021 – Lionel Messi (Barcelona/PSG and Argentina)
2020 – No award given due to COVID-19 pandemic
2019 – Lionel Messi (Barcelona and Argentina)
2018 – Luka Modric (Real Madrid and Croatia)
2017 – Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid and Portugal)
2016 – Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid and Portugal)
2015 – Lionel Messi (Barcelona and Argentina)
