With the imminent draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Finals and the tournament itself barely 6 months away, England fans once again look ahead to next Summer, wondering if the Three Lions can finally step up to glory and come out from the long shadow of 1966.
Having reached a second successive UEFA European Championship final two years ago, there is a sense of optimism among supporters, with UK Bookmakers offering odds as short as 13/2 to win the tournament outright!
The question is, are England justified second favourites behind Spain to win the 2026 World Cup? And Can England fans finally burn their “Three Lions (Football’s Coming Home)” CD’s in celebration next summer? Well, based on historical results, I feel Baddiel & Skinner may get some more life out of their hit for a while longer.
Brilliant In Qualifying, but Struggles Abroad
England has an impressive World Cup Qualification record, losing just 11 matches in all qualifiers played since 1950, In fact, their last qualification defeat was back in October 2009, when losing 1-0 away to Ukraine, with their unbeaten run of 39 matches stretching across four successive qualifying campaigns including 2026.
Qualifying is one thing, winning the lot is another and it’s no secret that England probably should have a couple of World Cup’s in the bag based on the talent available over the years, but one of their biggest struggles the side has had, is when participating in finals outside of Europe, having reached no further than the quarter-finals on five occasions.
To be fair to England, it wasn’t until 2010 that a European nation won the tournament outside of their own continent, when Spain lifted the trophy in South Africa, and Germany following in 2014, when hosted in Brazil, but ultimately, it shows just how difficult it is to do so.
A Poor Record Against The Big Boys
To further muddy the waters, England’s record against the “big” nations at the World Cup Finals is also relatively average, with 7 victories in 25 matches against the top sides since 1950*
(*Includes: Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Portugal & Spain)
In fact, prior to England’s loss to France in 2022, Belgium eliminated the Three Lions in Russia 2018, and they failed to get out of a group that included Italy, Uruguay and Costa Rica in Brazil 2014, so it’s not just those “big” sides that England struggle with, while traditionally they have been slow starters too, winning 7 of 14 opening matches at finals, although they have won their last two against the might of Iran and Tunisia.
2026 Expectations?
As mentioned at the beginning, England go in as second favourites with UK bookies, but with expectations higher after those successive European Championship performances, can Thomas Tuchel’s side match that?
So far, under Tuchel, England have been both sublime and ridiculous. A 5-0 thrashing of Serbia, away from home was impressive, especially with Jude Bellingham and other big names out of the side at the time.
However, that result gets countered by the 3 solitary goals in 180 minutes against Andorra and the 1-3 loss to Senegal among others.
There is still work to be done: Sterner tests of the defence are needed, the midfield needs to be settled and an alternative solution to Harry Kane also needs to be found (Danny Welbeck anyone?), before I or anyone else can honestly say, England can win it.
Whatever happens, England will be seeded, which will give them the maximum opportunity to go deep into the tournament and reboot those chants of “it’s coming home”, but as a long-suffering Englishman (and Spurs supporter), its the hope that gets you in the end!
